ai is going to widen the k shaped economy, so sell to the people at the top of the K, or sell the people at the bottom a way up

where does k shaped come from?

• after covid the recovery split in two like the letter K
  • people who own assets (stocks, houses) shot up
  • people living on wages fell behind
• its back now for consumer spending
  • the top 10% of earners now do ~half of all us consumer spending, up from ~35% in the early 90s
  • the bottom 80% fell to ~37%, from ~42% before covid
• asset prices went way up and inflation and high rates hit everyone else
  • so asset owners feel rich and keep spending, everyone else trades down
  • hermes and walmart growing, kohls and bath and body works hurting

how does ai change this game?

• ai benefits high capability individuals and mega corps with capital, so they pull away even faster
• we expect the top percentile to run massive agent fleets
• everything in the middle dies and the rest is left behind

what does this mean?

• sell to the asset owners
  • thats mostly older people and retirees, they own the houses and stocks
• sell to the people with ai tailwinds
  • the people running agents
  • and the agents themselves, as they’re the ones doing the buying
• sell shovels to the people without these tailwinds trying to escape
  • e.g gambling and to dying businesses
• avoid markets where the demand side is collapsing